AI: Which Way Will the Berlin Wall Fall?

I have taken to describing the current situation thusly:

The last time I felt this exhilarated but this unsettled was when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.

In important ways it represented an exciting advance, a true change in the world. There was hope, even celebration, but there was also uncertainty and even fear; would it all work out? What would the response from Moscow be? A little later, as the Soviet Union itself disintegrated, what would come out the other side -- and who would control the nukes?

I'll admit, I have reservations about AI, but even above those I didn't expect things to really move this fast. Having lived through many plateaus, I assigned a high probability to LLMs hitting another plateau in capability below their current level. I am startled, and concerned, but also intrigued.

There is so much more to say, but I'll leave it here for now.